Convective Outlook: Mon 28 Mar 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 28 Mar 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 29 Mar 2016

ISSUED 18:53 UTC Sun 27 Mar 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough will migrate slowly eastwards across the British Isles on Monday, while sharpening. At the surface, a deep area of low pressure will clear eastern England during the morning, with cold mid-levels following in its wake, steepening lapse rates due to a combination of relatively warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland.


Showers will affect western and northern coastal areas throughout the day, with particular attention given to Shetland at first in the morning, and more especially SW then S Britain during the afternoon and evening. Here, 200-300 Jkg-1 CAPE and ELTs down to -40C suggest that some sporadic lightning activity is likely, but not widespread/frequent enough to warrant a SLGT based on latest guidance.

Once again small hail is likely in any stronger cores that develop.