Convective Outlook: Tue 29 Mar 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 29 Mar 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 30 Mar 2016

ISSUED 08:39 UTC Tue 29 Mar 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 08:39 UTC LOW extended further south to cater for (low probability of) lightning risk associated with trough and subsequent showers this afternoon/evening.

Very broad upper trough will be in place across the British Isles on Tuesday, with shortwaves running eastwards along the trough base serving as a focus for more organised areas of showery precipitation. One such pronounced feature is expected to arrive in far SW Britain around midday, and then run eastwards across southern Britain through the afternoon / evening. However, most NWP suggests this will be largely dynamic in nature, and hence the lightning risk along this feature is considered fairly low. Nonetheless, given a strongly sheared environment there may perhaps be scope for some rotation, and perhaps a funnel or weak tornado with this feature.

Otherwise, it is generally another day of widespread, but low chance, lightning potential, perhaps the best environmental conditions to be found across C / E Ireland during the afternoon, but potential here is still too low to consider a SLGT. Once more, small hail is likely in any stronger cells that develop.