Convective Outlook: Thu 31 Mar 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 31 Mar 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 01 Apr 2016

ISSUED 16:25 UTC Wed 30 Mar 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharp upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Thursday, accompanied by cold mid-levels. This, combined with diurnal heating, will generate a couple hundred Jkg-1 CAPE, with orographic forcing / low-level convergence playing a key role in developing a few scattered showers and/or isolated thunderstorms, primarily through the afternoon and into the early evening.


Isolated heavy showers could develop almost anywhere, but the main focus being highlighted by the LOW areas, but even here the chance of lightning is still considered quite low. Slow storm-motion and/or back-building will result in some locally prolonged heavy downpours, perhaps causing some localised surface water flooding - especially across parts of NE England and S/SE Scotland. A highly-sheared environment across these areas as a northerly jet encroaches from the Atlantic suggests that environmental conditions will be more favourable for lightning across N + E England and S Scotland. Small hail may accompany any stronger cells.