Convective Outlook: Sat 02 Apr 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016

ISSUED 13:53 UTC Sat 02 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 13:53 UTC Little change to expectations as highlighted below with a very low chance of lightning near North Sea coasts this evening/tonight, most likely over Belgium/the Netherlands (if any at all). Added LOW area over S Ireland for the potential for some convective elements that may arrive at the very end of tonight (near 07:00 BST)

As a frontal wave develops and spreads rain northwards across England on Saturday evening, there is a very low chance (near 5-10%) of sporadic lightning on its eastern flank should enough (marginal) instability develop in the warm plume exiting France/the Low Countries. Chances are even if any lightning does occur, it will probably either remain over the near Continent, or out over open water of the southern North Sea.