Convective Outlook: Sun 03 Apr 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Apr 2016

ISSUED 18:16 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 18:16 UTC Extended SLGT northwards across East Anglia based on latest guidance as plume continues to destabilise through the evening hours

UPDATE 17:01 UTC Added SLGT over SE England for the evening hours as coverage of mid-level convection increases, but still some uncertainty as to the true extent of any lightning activity given marginal instability

UPDATE 07:50 UTC No change to overall expectations highlighted below, LOW area has been extended farther N across northern England into SE Scotland for very low chance of embedded convective activity overnight

Falling heights as an upper trough pivots NEwards across Britain and Ireland, coupled with a moist low-level airmass and rather slack surface flow, may allow some deep convection to occur across central Ireland on Sunday daytime, the focus gradually shifting a little westwards with time. Hence scattered showers or pulses of showery rain are likely at times, which may produce some sporadic lightning given 200-300 Jkg-1 CAPE.

Moisture plume will also begin to advect north on Sunday afternoon/evening across southern and eastern Britain from the nearby Continent. At the same time, flow will continue to back as upper trough migrates NEwards, steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing instability. It seems likely that at least some elevated convection will occur but in an environment with rather meagre CAPE (50-100 Jkg-1) and hence even if this does develop, it is still rather questionable as to how much lightning activity there will be, and the overall risk is deemed to low to issue a SLGT (which requires >30%). Main area of interest is from IoW-Humber eastwards, generally the risk increases as you head further E.