Convective Outlook: Fri 08 Apr 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 08 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 09 Apr 2016

ISSUED 20:11 UTC Thu 07 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Old occlusion boundary across the Midlands will drift slowly eastwards on Friday, serving as the focus for a few scattered showers to develop in response to diurnal heating. The same is also true with some sea breeze convergence close to some eastern coasts too. In both cases, depth of moisture is limited due to dry air aloft as upper ridging slides eastwards, and so even though ELTs may locally fall below -10C with some reasonable DLS giving a non-zero risk of lightning, the chance of lightning actually occurring is considered too low to consider a specific LOW area.


Attention then turns to the post-frontal environment arriving from the Atlantic on Friday night. A significantly cold airmass will overspread relatively warm SSTs around Ireland and southwest Britain, with steep lapse rates bringing scattered showers, some electrified. This is most likely over open water and near coastal areas, with convection tending to weaken as it feeds further inland and loses the deep instability in the absence of diurnal heating. Some small hail is possible in any stronger cells