Convective Outlook: Sat 09 Apr 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 09 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 10 Apr 2016

ISSUED 19:53 UTC Fri 08 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Notably cold airmass spreads across most of the British Isles behind a northwards/eastwards-moving occlusion, as a broad upper low slides SEwards from the Atlantic towards west of Biscay. In a deeply unstable airmass, especially so to diurnal heating, numerous showers are expected with a few thunderstorms, especially across Ireland where low-level convergence and very steep lapse rates will aid in shower/thunderstorm development. One precluding factor across Ireland is the lack of any significant shear, with pulse-type showers/storms the most likely mode, but also scope for shower-training and some local surface water issues given the rather slack setup.


Elsewhere, instability is weaker but shear much stronger, allowing cells to perhaps get better organised and hence a broad LOW threat level for lightning. Some small hail is likely in any stronger cells, perhaps even a brief spell of snow (especially in Ireland and to high ground elsewhere).