Low-level wind convergence will once again play a key role in generation of convection, especially close to coasts. In broad terms, forecast profiles look moister than the past couple of days, with more cloud likely as a result and subsequently reducing/limiting amounts of insolation. Also, surface temperatures will be a little lower than the past day or so, and hence the slight reduction in CAPE exhibited in various models. However, with the upper trough splitting, the jet stream arm over southern France will begin to bulge northwards, serving to increase DLS to some 20-30kts.

Given these conditions, it is likely that showers will be more widespread over the SLGT area than the past couple of days, but with a lower chance per shower of producing lightning. Available DLS will help organise cells to an extent, which may allow better updraft/downdraft separation for cells to last longer and produce lightning. Mean westerly flow aloft also suggests showers/storms will be slightly faster moving than past couple of days, and while this would initially reduce the rain totals (and risk of flash flooding) it also allows backbuilding to occur, and so there is still a risk of 10-15mm falling in just 1 hour. There remains a chance of a few funnels or a weak tornado close to convergence zones, especially where surface winds become backed, and the strongest cells may also produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.