Convective Outlook: Tue 26 Apr 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 26 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 27 Apr 2016

ISSUED 19:36 UTC Mon 25 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough sinks slowly southwestwards across British Isles on Tuesday, introducing unseasonably cold airmass of Arctic origin. Showers will be ongoing along exposed coastal counties at the beginning of this forecast period, and will only become more widespread inland as diurnal heating coupled with cold air aloft generates deep instability. CAPE is rather limited given dry surface air (hence very low dewpoints and high cloud bases away from windward coasts), around 200-300 J/kg at best, but very steep lapse rates will result in some sporadic / isolated lightning activity, with the potential for numerous events of small hail.