The frontal zone will pivot across England and Wales, with scope for convective elements to develop during the afternoon/evening across Wales / Midlands / E Anglia in particular close to and along the cold front given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing DLS with the arrival of a jet streak from the west. Instability is limited, but shear may be enough to compensate to produce some isolated lightning, hence the LOW finger across these areas. Furthermore, ahead and along this cold front, numerous showers are forecast to develop during the evening over the English Channel and affect adjacent coasts, again with a fairly low probability of lightning.

Perhaps the most likely area for lightning activity will be in the post-frontal airmass across SW Scotland then NW England (perhaps also Northern Ireland) on Thursday night, as a wrap-around occlusion close to the surface low centre drifts SEwards. This is still considered a LOW probability for now, but given very steep lapse rates and cold air aloft over relatively warm SSTs (and orographic forcing / frictional effects as showers move inland) then there is certainly scope for some sporadic lightning activity.

Small hail and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest cells.