Convective Outlook: Sat 30 Apr 2016 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 30 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 May 2016
ISSUED 16:21 UTC Fri 29 Apr 2016
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Sharpening upper trough and associated cold pool in the mid-levels will continue to clear eastwards from eastern Britain on Saturday; the approaching rear-side jet will serve to increase DLS from the west later in the day, accompanied by rising heights as ridging develops. This then provides a narrow window (spatially) for deep convection to occur.
Nonetheless, scattered showers will develop during the day in response to diurnal heating and steep lapse rates, particularly focussed late afternoon/early evening along zones of low-level wind convergence given fairly slack flow, perhaps with some organisation as DLS increases. Some sporadic/isolated lightning is likely, especially so in a zone from Lincolnshire down to the Home Counties / London / SE England (highlighted by a second LOW for clarity), but overall potential is considered below SLGT threshold. Given steep lapse rates and cold air aloft, numerous incidents of small hail / graupel are once again likely.