Convective Outlook: Mon 02 May 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 02 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 03 May 2016

ISSUED 15:07 UTC Sun 01 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

An Atlantic frontal system will slide southeastwards across the British Isles during Monday, beneath a sharpening upper trough - as this trough interacts with the surface cold front, it seems likely that elements of line convection will develop, particularly across the Midlands into East Anglia through the afternoon and early evening. Overall, such elements will be too shallow for lightning, but it is not out of the question that some isolated lightning may occur with such features along the cold front, and perhaps any following showers in the post-frontal environment, hence the extension of the (low-end) LOW across Midlands / East Anglia.


Otherwise, primary risk of lightning will be associated with scattered showers in the post-frontal environment, as cooling aloft over relatively warm SSTs, and diurnal heating inland, develops deep convection with sporadic lightning. Given steep lapse rates and cold air aloft, some small hail is likely from the stronger cores that develop.