Convective Outlook: Sun 08 May 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 08 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 09 May 2016

ISSUED 07:40 UTC Sat 07 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan


Pockets of elevated convection may be ongoing on Sunday morning across parts of Wales, and like Saturday will continue to nudge towards the NW - provided once again that sufficient diurnal heating can develop, then there is scope for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening.

Forecast profiles are not particularly conducive to organised convection, and hence the risk of severe weather is fairly low, with the main risk being flash flooding from heavy downpours and local incidences of hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Forecast soundings suggest that thunderstorms will be quite isolated given fairly dry air in the mid and upper levels, and so while we have issued a broad SLGT given the potential for a shower to produce lightning being quite high, aerial coverage will probably remain quite low - in fact, based on % chance of lightning within 25 mile radius, even a SLGT may be too high!

Once again there is the potential for isolated elevated convection to be imported into southern coastal counties during Sunday night.