VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 09 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 10 May 2016

ISSUED 20:39 UTC Sun 08 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Large cut-off low will be located west of Iberia, providing a feed of of high WBPT air around its northern and eastern flanks across central/southern Britain. Assuming enough insolation occurs (questionable cloud cover) then pre-frontal troughing will be the main focus for deep convection, associated with a zone of low-level wind convergence providing the necessary forcing. Have issued a low-end SLGT to highlight areas of greatest interest, but even here it is uncertain as to how much lightning activity may actually materialise. High-res models also suggest a cluster of active thunderstorms moving N-wards from Brest peninsula towards the Channel Islands late Monday afternoon/early evening, hence the inclusion of a SLGT here.