Convective Outlook: Fri 13 May 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 13 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 14 May 2016

ISSUED 18:22 UTC Thu 12 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

A sharpening upper trough will dig southwards across the North Sea, while a surface cold front slides southwestwards across Britain through Friday. Ahead of this front, sufficient insolation and sea breeze convergence will be the main trigger for isolated showers with a couple of thunderstorms possible, particularly close to southern coasts in the highlighted areas where onshore flow / convergence is maximised.


Lapse rates are a little steeper, but dewpoints lower, compared with Thursday so overall lightning frequency will probably be less per individual shower/storm in comparison. DLS does increase, though, from the north later as a northerly jet digs in around the western periphery of the upper trough. Overall severe threat is quite minimal, with perhaps just some small hail from the most intense cores, with the main threat being minor surface water issues from heavy downpours.