Convective Outlook: Fri 27 May 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 27 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 28 May 2016

ISSUED 21:49 UTC Thu 26 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

An area of humid, unstable air will drift in from the south across southern parts of Britain and Ireland between Thursday evening and through Friday. This combined with daytime heating on Friday afternoon will produce CAPE values of 500-800j/kg. The highest CAPE is expected across S/Cen England; into Wiltshire / the Salisbury plain, where we will monitor the potential for an upgrade to SLGT. Moisture may be a limiting factor with some computer models only developing isolated convection. However given the CAPE available even these isolated storms could produce a lot of lightning and some locally heavy downpours. Bulk shear remains relatively weak, so while storms will be slow moving, updrafts will be generally of the pulse variety.