Convective Outlook: Tue 31 May 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 31 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 01 Jun 2016

ISSUED 03:27 UTC Tue 31 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

An area of low pressure over the near continent that has helped to produce widespread thunderstorms across the continent over the last few days will move westwards pushing a plume of humid, unstable mid-level air, over a cooler boundary layer into southeastern Britain during the early morning hours of Tuesday. MUCAPE values of 200-300j/kg will move across the North Sea early on Tuesday along with mid-level lapse rates increasing to 25-27C. This set up combined with advection of upper level postive vorticity around the northern edge of the low should aid in developing deep convection capable of producing lightning, perhaps frequent for a time, in eastern parts of East Anglia. As ever with these mid-level types of set-up there is a large amount of uncertainty in the frequency of the lightning once it arrives into Britain from the east/southeast, and then how far it will spread westwards before becoming an area of rain.