A complicated setup exists on Tuesday with various rounds / potential for thunderstorms through the forecast period. Synoptically, a plume of warm, moist air continues to advect north from the nearby Continent, capped initially by a notable warm nose aloft. However, it is likely that elevated convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning over the Irish Sea into eastern Northern Ireland / extreme SW Scotland, and perhaps also feeding into SE England from remnant overnight convection over France / English Channel - although the extent and amount of lightning activity with this remains questionable.

Otherwise, diurnal heating combined with low-level convergence (sea breeze and orographic forcing) with a shortwave trough nudging slowly NE-wards will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours, forming into clusters along areas of pronounced wind convergence. DLS is rather weak in the main, leading to fairly disorganised convection, but given slow storm motion, relatively high MLCAPE (700-1100 Jkg^-1) and 28-32mm PWAT, any storms that do develop could produce frequent lightning, local flash flooding with rain accumulations of 15-30mm in 1 hour, and hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Converging low-level winds and rapidly rising updrafts may allow a couple of brief funnels / tornadoes to develop.

Storms will gradually decay through the late evening hours, although may still produce lightning well beyond 00z Wednesday across the East Midlands / Home Counties. The SLGT over the Home Counties may need to be merged with the SLGT over northern England if confidence continues to increase, along with perhaps the introduction of a MDT - trends will be monitored for this during Tuesday.