| Convective Outlook: Wed 08 Jun 2016 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 09 Jun 2016
ISSUED 20:19 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper trough gradually slides SE-wards into the near Continent early on Wednesday, causing any remaining convection across Home Counties to decay through the morning. Meanwhile upper ridge builds more strongly across western Britain, with forecast profiles certainly looking drier aloft in response to subsidence compared with soundings from Tuesday.
Nonetheless, diurnal heating and low-level convergence / orographic forcing will once again be responsible for producing isolated showers and thunderstorms, particularly over high ground, but much more isolated / less-widespread than was the case on Tuesday. DLS increases through the day as the upper jet strengthens and digs southwards along the eastern flank of the upper ridge. The strongest cells may produce hail up to 1.0cm in diameter, with an ongoing risk of localised flash flooding from prolonged downpours, especially on any saturated ground following previous days showers.




