Convective Outlook: Fri 10 Jun 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 10 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 11 Jun 2016

ISSUED 20:59 UTC Thu 09 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

High pressure to the north of Britain will continue to weaken, leaving a slack pattern in place. At the same time, height falls will continue aloft as well as cooling of mid-levels over Ireland into the afternoon. The steeping lapse rates in Ireland may produce a few isolated heavy showers with thunder very late in the day and into early evening there.


A lot of cloud and some dynamic rain is expected during the morning across central England, but south of that, an area of instability will develop into the afternoon. CAPE values for 400-500j/kg will be possible into the afternoon, with LIs only neutral or marginally negative. These relatively weak thermodynamics combined with virtually no shear and the fact that a similar airmass did not produce much thunder on Thursday mean that this slight risk is on the low end, and may need to be downgraded. Convection should initiate in the slight zone between 1200-1400BST on Friday. 

Mesoscale models indicate the warm/humid airmass will linger into the early evening across SCen England, suggesting a few heavy showers with marginal thunder risk may develop there into the evening.