Convective Outlook: Mon 13 Jun 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 13 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 14 Jun 2016

ISSUED 04:55 UTC Mon 13 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 04:55 UTC SLGTs merged into one broader area, but considered a low-end/marginal SLGT, with many areas within likely to avoid lightning activity. Potential for a marginal-SLGT to also be introduced to parts of Ireland if confidence increases

A broad upper low will remain across much of the north Atlantic and northwestern Europe. On Monday a surface trough axis will be positioned along a line from southwest Scotland through East Anglia, providing convergence and added lift that should help to produce a zone of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Thermodynamics and surface moisture remain favourable in this zone for heavy convective showers, with 400-600j/kg of CAPE possible into the afternoon, although dewpoints will be slightly lower than on Sunday (12-13C rather than 14-15C). However, cloud cover and thus subdued surface temperatures could limit the coverage of thunderstorms, and the slight area will be re-examined during Monday for potential adjustments. The overall potential of thunderstorms does not look as high as on Sunday. Like the previous few days, deep layer shear remains almost non-existant therefore showers and thunderstorms will remain disorganised and messy. However, given the low level convergence any developing updrafts could still produce some weak funnels, also similar to the situation on Sunday. 

Elsewhere broad-scale ascent means that showers will be possible over a large area and some isolated lightning is not out of of the question, although lack of convergence makes that potential very low.