Convective Outlook: Tue 21 Jun 2016 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 21 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 22 Jun 2016
ISSUED 18:02 UTC Mon 20 Jun 2016
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Sharpening upper trough over the Atlantic, but with rising heights / weak ridging over the British Isles, suppressing deep convection in many areas. However, greater proximity to the upper trough will allow some convective potential across portions of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland. Here, scattered showers / outbreaks of showery rain are likely to affect western extremities in particular, but overall the environment does not look particularly conducive to producing lightning. Chances increase more in the evening hours as lapse rates steepen a little due to an advancing shortwave and marginal cooling aloft, but by this stage peak heating will have passed and so given the very low potential for lightning, have refrained from issuing any threat levels for now.