| Convective Outlook: Fri 24 Jun 2016 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Jun 2016
ISSUED 21:16 UTC Thu 23 Jun 2016
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper trough will slide slowly SE-wards across British Isles through Friday, accompanied by cool mid-levels steepening lapse rates when combined with diurnal heating. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop during the day, becoming more numerous through the afternoon and early evening in an environment yielding 200-300 Jkg-1 MLCAPE over Britain, and 400-600 Jkg-1 MLCAPE over Ireland. Given relatively slack surface flow, multiple zones of low-level convergence (combined with some orographic uplift) will provide the main focus for showers and thunderstorms, and perhaps a couple of funnel clouds.
Despite lower CAPE across England and Wales, better shear will be present (30-40kts) to enable cells to become organised at times, perhaps capable of producing hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. PWAT of 18-22mm will limit the flash flood risk somewhat, although slow storm motion and/or shower training may give some locally appreciable rainfall totals.




