| Convective Outlook: Sat 25 Jun 2016 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 25 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 26 Jun 2016
ISSUED 21:27 UTC Fri 24 Jun 2016
ISSUED BY: Dan
Similar setup on Saturday compared with Friday, with a sharpening upper trough slowly shifting eastwards across the British Isles - the associated cool mid-levels with diurnal heating at the surface will steepen lapse rates and yield an environment with 400-700 Jkg-1 MLCAPE. As a result, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop, particularly focussed along zones of low-level convergence. Shear will be rather weak, leading to a lack of organisation, but tends to strengthen farther west as the northerly jet on the rear-side of the upper trough advances eastwards. Hail with diameter of 1.5-2.0cm in diameter is possible in the strongest cells, and given slow storm motion and potential for shower-training then there may be some locally high rainfall accumulations.
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