Convective Outlook: Wed 29 Jun 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 29 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 30 Jun 2016

ISSUED 21:20 UTC Tue 28 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Two main zones of convective potential exist on Wednesday - the deepest instability will be found to the north of an eastward-moving frontal system/low, as cold mid-levels spread across diurnally-heated land to generate scattered showers and a couple of weakly-electrified thunderstorms. Overall instability is meagre and hence lightning potential is too low to warrant smaller SLGT areas.


Farther south, moderately-strong DLS across yet another SMZ with dry intrusion aloft will bring the threat of scattered heavy showers in the post-frontal environment during the afternoon and evening hours, forming distinct lines parallel with the mean flow. True convective depth will be limited in height, and so lightning potential per individual shower remains too low to warrant a SLGT here too. Nonetheless, given the sheared environment and areas of low-level convergence, combined with relatively low LCLs, there exists the potential for a brief/weak tornado - particularly across N England where a (marginally) better overlap of shear and weak instability should exist.