Convective Outlook: Sat 02 Jul 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 Jul 2016

ISSUED 20:03 UTC Fri 01 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will continue to pivot eastwards across the British Isles on Saturday, the axis well to the east by time of peak heating. Nonetheless, cold air aloft and diurnal heating combined should yield 200-500 Jkg^-1 MLCAPE, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing. DLS will increase from the southwest through the afternoon as the upper trough clears eastwards, but for much of the time shear will be weak to modest at best, limiting cell organisation to a certain extent. Hail locally to 1.5cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cells, perhaps with some gusty winds.