Convective Outlook: Tue 05 Jul 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Jul 2016

ISSUED 21:46 UTC Mon 04 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather broad/flat upper trough will reside to the north and east of the British Isles, with a shortwave feature / cold pocket sliding SE-wards across Scotland during the day. The cold air aloft combined with diurnal surface heating will steepen lapse rates with a few hundred Jkg-1 MLCAPE. Scattered showers are expected within the LOW threat area, with a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms possible, especially in the SLGT.


Given presence of NW jet aloft, strong DLS (40-60kts) with some elements of coastal convergence / backed surface winds increasing LLS, some potential for organised convection perhaps with low-level rotation exists - more especially eastern Borders into NE England. Any strong convection may produce hail up to 1.5-2.0cm in diameter, and strong, gusty winds.