Convective Outlook: Sat 09 Jul 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 09 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 10 Jul 2016

ISSUED 17:18 UTC Fri 08 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge gradually eases away to the east on Saturday, as a frontal system migrates northeast. A messy situation then evolves, with a slow-moving cold front parallel to the strong southwesterly flow and associated with a zone of high ThetaE. Subtle mid-level instability release may allow some elevated convection to develop at times along this front, tending to shear-off to the NE while the mean frontal motion will be to creep slowly SE-wards. The depth of this convection is uncertain, and hence a broad LOW threat level issued for the very low potential for some isolated lightning activity with any of these embedded convective elements.


Behind this zone, strong heating of an environment with dewpoints of 16-17C should yield 200-400 Jkg-1 MLCAPE across parts of Republic Ireland / Northern Ireland. Frictional convergence and orographic forcing will likely allow a few scattered heavy showers or weakly-electrified thunderstorms to develop late afternoon into the evening hours, moving quickly to the NE given strong steering flow. 40-50kts DLS should allow some organisation of convection, but given also low LCLs and temporary backing of the surface winds close to the triple point/cold front, there is scope for a tornado, especially across eastern portions of Northern Ireland where cells may also exhibit some supercellular characteristics.