Convective Outlook: Sun 17 Jul 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 17 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 18 Jul 2016

ISSUED 10:24 UTC Sun 17 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Residual high WBPT plume lingering across southern counties of England providing enough moisture such that should sufficient sea breeze forcing develop, there is scope for isolated heavy showers / thunderstorm just inland from the south coast this afternoon. This is treated as a very low risk at the moment, giving forecast profiles suggesting elements of capping at various levels, most notably at 750-800mb.


Hints of elevated convection over Northern Ireland / western Scotland overnight, and perhaps NE England at the very end of the night - but lightning potential considered too low / uncertain to issue a threat level at present.