VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2016

ISSUED 19:31 UTC Sun 17 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridging will build on Monday across the British Isles, but with a residual high WPBT airmass. Despite forecast profiles looking very dry, low-level convergence with surface temperatures 25-28C and dewpoints in the high teens Celsius may allow a couple of showers or thunderstorms to develop late afternoon / early evening, albeit fairly low confidence at this stage. PWAT in the mid-high 30s mm suggests local accumulations of 30-35mm is possible in a short space of time, despite reasonable motion to the NE, which may cause some local surface water issues. There is scope also for isolated deep convection elsewhere, such as Northern Ireland, S + NE Scotland, but confidence is too low for any threat levels for now.