Convective Outlook: Fri 22 Jul 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 22 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 23 Jul 2016

ISSUED 04:37 UTC Fri 22 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Atlantic upper trough continues to track eastwards on Friday, while sharpening and narrowing. The associated cool mid/upper levels atop a relatively warm/moist surface airmass, with dewpoints of 15-17C, will steepen lapse rates and generate a couple hundred Jkg-1 MLCAPE in response to diurnal heating. Expect scattered showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms to develop in rather slack conditions, particularly focussed along zones of low-level wind convergence.


A couple of Low-end SLGTs have been issued where zones of convergence seem most likely to occur - although instability is rather limited and it is quite plausible that several heavy showers may not actually produce much in the way of lightning. Nonetheless, given PWAT of 30-35mm and rather slow storm motion, there is the risk of some local surface water flooding from prolonged heavy downpours and locally high rainfall totals. A few brief funnel clouds will also be possible.