Convective Outlook: Tue 16 Aug 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2016

ISSUED 09:13 UTC Tue 16 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 09:13 UTC No major changes, just minor tweaks to extend the existing LOW threat level slightly farther east

Upper high cell will drift from the British Isles towards the Norwegian Sea on Tuesday, allowing advection of warmer air / higher low-level WBPT plume on the southwestern flank of the high (as the flow backs) into parts of Ireland and extreme SW England. This, combined with the approaching Atlantic upper trough, will provide some scope for elevated convection to occur either within or ahead of the advancing Atlantic frontal boundary.

Instability is rather limited, and hence the coverage of lightning is unlikely to be too widespread - so we remain with a LOW threat level for now. If any surface-based convection can develop, particularly across W Ireland on Tuesday evening, it may benefit from 30-40kts to DLS to become organised for a time.