Convective Outlook: Wed 17 Aug 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2016

ISSUED 13:27 UTC Tue 16 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Plume of high low-level WBPT will gradually nudge northeastwards with time through Wednesday, from Ireland into Wales/SW England while being stretched to the SE (towards France) overnight as upper heights rise. The proximity to the forward side of the Atlantic frontal boundary and upper forcing may allow elements of medium-level instability to be released in a rather sporadic nature, with scope for pockets of embedded lightning possible. This potential is perhaps greatest late afternoon into the evening over the Celtic Sea / SW England / SW Wales / W Channel, but gradually decreases and exits into northern France during Wednesday night.


Given marginal instability and current uncertainties, it is likely any lightning activity (if any) may not be that widespread, and hence the chance in any one location is considered too low to warrant a SLGT for now.