Convective Outlook: Fri 19 Aug 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 19 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016

ISSUED 20:49 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge initially across the British Isles will shift eastwards as a notable upper trough approaches from the southwest, associated with an unseasonably deep area of low pressure. The greatest potential for lightning will likely be in the post-frontal environment, especially through Friday night over the Celtic / Irish Seas and neighbouring coastal counties, as cold mid-levels round the base of the upper trough atop relatively warm SSTs. Given marginal instability, the true spatial extent of lightning is probably not high enough to warrant an upgrade to SLGT at this time. The strongest cells may produce gusty winds and some small hail.