Convective Outlook: Tue 23 Aug 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 23 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 24 Aug 2016

ISSUED 13:13 UTC Mon 22 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

As the approaching Atlantic upper trough engages with the trailing cold front and western edge of the plume of warm, moist air across the bulk of England and Wales, then there is scope for a reinvigoration of precipitation across portions of S/SE Scotland and perhaps Cumbria-NE England on Tuesday evening and night, running NE-wards with time. Instability is not overly-impressive and so the true extent/frequency of any lightning from this (primarily elevated) convection is unclear, and confidence not high enough for a SLGT to be issued at this time. Main concern would be the risk of locally high rainfall totals given PWAT 32-36mm.


GFS has been consistently keen to develop deep convection and isolated to well-scattered showers/thunderstorms over high ground of N Wales and N England late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. This particular model has a known bias to develop showers/thunderstorms in a warm, moist southwesterly flow with elements of orographic forcing - and has a history of doing so in similar situations in the past. In reality a field of convective cloud often develops but fails to build into anything more significant, and so for now have ignored this potential.