Convective Outlook: Fri 26 Aug 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 Aug 2016

ISSUED 11:48 UTC Fri 26 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 11:48 UTC SLGT re-introduced to S/SE England and LOW extended farther N to cater for increase elevated activity likely overnight

Any leftover elevated convection should soon clear the SE and E Anglia, leaving the main focus during Friday across Scotland where cooling aloft atop relatively warm SSTs and diurnally-warmed land will steepen lapse rates developing a few scattered showers, sometimes organised into bands, with a couple of weakly-electrified thunderstorms. Strengthening DLS from the south through the afternoon could allow some cells to become better organised across northern Scotland - with the potential for an upgrade to SLGT.

Late Friday night the attention then shifts to the English Channel and environs as warm, moist plume makes a return from France, in theory beginning to destabilise in the mid-levels as a warm front slowly lifts north. An increase in elevated convection seems likely through the early hours of Saturday morning over the highlighted LOW threat areas - still at this stage a lot of uncertainty as to how quickly this plume will destabilise, and hence how much lightning activity there will be, so we refrain from issuing a SLGT at this stage.