Convective Outlook: Sun 28 Aug 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 28 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 29 Aug 2016

ISSUED 03:59 UTC Sun 28 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Early rain, perhaps with some embedded lightning, will clear northern England during Sunday morning, leave a more standard day of sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Increasing instability as the upper trough slides eastwards with cool mid-levels atop diurnally-heated land may allow scattered showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms to develop, especially during the afternoon across the W Country - Midlands - East Anglia/Lincs. A low-end SLGT has been introduced to highlight this risk, but with the proviso that quite a large part of the SLGT will likely remain void of any lightning.


Showers across Scotland will be slower-moving and tending to be focussed along areas of low-level convergence, so overall will likely give higher rainfall totals but forecast profiles look quite dry aloft, limiting the true convective depth - and hence the chance of lightning here is considered below SLGT levels.