Convective Outlook: Sat 03 Sep 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 03 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 04 Sep 2016

ISSUED 20:34 UTC Fri 02 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

A complex low pressure and associated fronts will cross southern Britain during Saturday bringing heavy rain to places and the potential of some strong gusts to coastal areas in Wales and SW England. Some embedded convection cant be ruled out in the heavy rain as it moves through, but lightning seems unlikely. Once its cleared to the east later in the afternoon and into the evening a highly sheared (40-50kts DLS) and weakly unstable (200 j/kg CAPE) airmass will overspread southern Britain. During this time isolated fast moving sharp showers or a few thunderstorms will be possible. Narrow lines of more intense convection may develop through the evening and first part of the night in a zone from southern Ireland, across north Wales, Liverpool Bay and over to the Humber estuary. Given the shear in this zone a few weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out.