Convective Outlook: Mon 12 Sep 2016 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 12 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 13 Sep 2016
ISSUED 19:47 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2016
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Sharpening Atlantic upper trough will continue to dig southwards to the west of Iberia, while pivoting to the NE. This will allow northward advection of high a ThetaW airmass on the forward side of the upper trough, ahead of a cold front. Strong, near-parallel flow along this frontal boundary will likely result with episodes of line convection along the cold front, capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps some isolated lightning - hence a fairly broad LOW threat level issued as the front migrates eastwards with time. Overall coverage of lightning is expected to be fairly small, if any. Given strong shear and low cloud bases, there may be scope for an isolated funnel/tornado.