Convective Outlook: Thu 22 Sep 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 22 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 23 Sep 2016

ISSUED 20:35 UTC Wed 21 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

In the post-frontal environment, cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates as a sharp upper trough migrates NE-wards, allowing deep convection to bring showers, sometimes in more organised bands, with a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms possible too. The lightning risk will be greatest (but considered sub-SLGT criteria) over Ireland and Northern Ireland on Thursday afternoon, the focus then shifting NE with time to W Scotland by evening. Gusty winds and hail up to 1.0-1.5cm in diameter will be possible with the best organised showers/storms.