Convective Outlook: Sat 24 Sep 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 24 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 25 Sep 2016

ISSUED 20:30 UTC Fri 23 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Strong DLS along the cold front, with a high WBPT low-level plume in advance, will create an environment conducive to episodes of line convection as the frontal boundary moves erratically eastwards through Saturday and Saturday night. In such conditions, true convective depth tends to be relatively shallow, and so lightning is often very infrequent or non-existent - and hence a broad but low-end LOW threat level (i.e. near 5-10% chance) has been issued to cover the frontal passage through this 24 hour period. That said, a brief funnel or weak tornado cannot be ruled out.


Aside from this, most areas will remain void of lightning during this forecast period, with the exception of portions of Ireland on Saturday night as a sharp upper trough and associated cold mid-levels create an environment of notably steep lapse rates. Expect an increase in shower coverage here through the early hours of Sunday, extending into far western extremities of Britain by the end of this forecast period - though not phasing ideally with diurnal heating, and so coverage of lightning is expected to be too sparse to issue a SLGT. Nonetheless, some small hail and gusty winds will be possible with this activity.