Convective Outlook: Sun 25 Sep 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 25 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 26 Sep 2016

ISSUED 16:23 UTC Sat 24 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Strong DLS along the cold front boundary may continue to produce some elements of line convection, especially on the leading edge of the precipitation field, as the front clears eastwards across E/SE England on Sunday morning - although the risk of lightning is very low (near 5-10%).


Otherwise, the post-frontal environment will exhibit notably steep lapse rates as a sharp upper trough slides NE from the Atlantic across the British Isles. Numerous showers, as a result of cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs, will be ongoing at the beginning of this forecast period over portions of Ireland, and will tend to become more widespread in coverage through the day across many areas - although very few in sheltered eastern parts. Lightning will be rather sporadic in nature, hence the broad LOW threat level issued, but a favourable overlap of instability phasing with peak diurnal heating suggests a better chance of showers becoming electrified across northern parts of Ireland into Northern Ireland on Sunday afternoon - hence a SLGT issued here.

The strongest cells will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.