Convective Outlook: Mon 26 Sep 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 26 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 27 Sep 2016

ISSUED 19:45 UTC Sun 25 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

An upper trough axis will move eastwards across northern Scotland helping to produce very modest lapse rates and around 200 j/kg of CAPE. This will be enough to generate some heavy showers, a few with a low end risk of thunder, mainly during the morning and early afternoon. 


Elsewhere, low pressure centred the southwest of Ireland will push an area of cloud and rain across Ireland and into southwestern parts of Britain during the day. Ahead of this scattered showers will be possible, but with slight height rises and the lack of instability, convective potential will be limited across southern and eastern England. There will also be the very small chance of embedded lightning within precipitation near the low (western England and Wales), but it is deemed too small of a risk to include in this forecast.