Convective Outlook: Sat 01 Oct 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 01 Oct 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 02 Oct 2016

ISSUED 19:23 UTC Fri 30 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

A messy mix of dynamic and convective precipitation is expected as a cold pool aloft associated with an upper trough tracks eastwards, with bands of showers/showery rain rotating around the surface low. Sporadic lightning will be possible, especially close to coastal areas, along with some hail - although one limitation will be extensive cloud cover. Instability is considered too weak/marginal for any SLGTs to be introduced. Primary concern is the risk of local flooding from relatively slow-moving heavy downpours combined with some elements of along-flow shower training. Such setups can often produce funnel clouds or even brief waterspouts.