Convective Outlook: Fri 14 Oct 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 14 Oct 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 15 Oct 2016

ISSUED 07:52 UTC Fri 14 Oct 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers, some thundery, associated with a shortwave will continue to migrate NW-wards from the northern Irish Sea towards the Hebrides during Friday. Reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates and low CAPE suggests some sporadic lightning will continue to be possible, especially over water where warm SSTs will help develop deep convection.


Rain already into SW Ireland will slowly slide NE-wards with time during Friday and Friday night, perhaps with some sporadic embedded lightning. The post-frontal environment is characterised by much steeper lapse rates, and so the risk of lightning (albeit still sub-SLGT) increases with showers behind the cold front overnight, especially over seas. Small hail and gusty winds will be the main hazards.