Convective Outlook: Mon 17 Oct 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 17 Oct 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 18 Oct 2016

ISSUED 19:59 UTC Sun 16 Oct 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough north of the British Isles will begin to relax away to the NE through Monday, allowing mid-levels to gradually warm from the SW with time, and therefore restricting the aerial extent for the potential of deep convection farther to the NE as the day progresses. Nonetheless, showers will continue to develop over relatively warm SSTs and feed inland on prevailing winds - a low-end SLGT has been issued where the steepest lapse rates/best instability is likely to be found during the morning hours in particular. Some small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest cells.


Overnight, a new cut-off upper low will break away from the main trough and slide/extend southeastwards across the British Isles, steepening lapse rates once again in western areas. Therefore there may be an increase in steric activity over W/SW Scotland later on Monday night, although this remains questionable due to a messy mix of precipitation contained within the wrap-around occlusion.