Convective Outlook: Thu 20 Oct 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 20 Oct 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 21 Oct 2016

ISSUED 08:48 UTC Thu 20 Oct 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper vortex now centred over Germany on Thursday, with cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs creating ideal conditions for deep convection. Steering winds will advect the subsequent showers towards eastern parts of East Anglia and SE England. Instability, albeit marginal, is sufficient for some sporadic/isolated lightning, especially over the North Sea and perhaps affecting some adjacent coasts. The most intense cells may produce some small hail and gusty winds, with perhaps even a waterspout/brief funnel possible.