Convective Outlook: Fri 18 Nov 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 18 Nov 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 19 Nov 2016

ISSUED 21:33 UTC Thu 17 Nov 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharpening upper trough continues to pivot eastwards across the British Isles, with notably steep lapse rates as a result of cold mid-levels atop seasonably warm SSTs. In this environment, numerous showers are expected, heaviest and most frequent in western areas, and close to the south coast also where onshore winds are likely. Overall instability is too marginal to warrant any SLGT areas for now, but the risk is generally greatest near exposed onshore coasts and over open seas. Many sheltered eastern areas may stay dry.


Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the most intense showers, with snow on high ground, especially in farther to the N and W. Small risk of a funnel or weak tornado, especially near the south coast where better organisation of convection may occur given a slightly more favourable environment.