Convective Outlook: Sun 20 Nov 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 20 Nov 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 21 Nov 2016

ISSUED 22:01 UTC Sat 19 Nov 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Deep area of low pressure, centred near Surrey at 06z Sunday, and associated squally shower bands across SE England and East Anglia will continue to clear NE-wards through Sunday morning. Strong gradient winds are expected, especially exposed coastal areas, but damaging winds are possible farther inland from any intense, squally showers that develop on a local scale - these capable of producing small hail and lightning. Gradient winds may also be further enhanced from a potential sting jet on the rear-side of the low, as appears to be developing at time of writing on Saturday evening - and is simulated in some NWP. As mentioned in Saturdays forecast, a low chance of a tornado also exists for coasts of Hampshire to East Sussex, although this risk rapidly diminishing early on Sunday morning.


Elsewhere, little noteworthy convection to speak of except far northern and western extremities, mainly Shetland down to the Outer Hebrides and far NW of Ireland where convective depth may just be sufficient for sporadic lightning.

On Sunday night, an increase in convective activity may take place behind the initial returning frontal rain, mainly over the English Channel and adjacent coasts - hence an extension of the LOW threat level here. Given a strongly-sheared environment, there again exists the (low) potential of a tornado close to the south coast during the early hours of Monday.