However, the main attention is given to another deep area of low pressure lingering close to the southwest of Cornwall through much of Monday. Aside from the risk of damaging winds down the Irish Sea, and heavy, persistent frontal rain giving rise to flooding issues, there are 2 main areas of interest from a convective standpoint - the cold front, and the subsequent post-frontal environment.

Given a strongly-sheared environment and marginal instability, the cold front is likely to exhibit segments of line convection capable of localised gusty winds and brief heavy rain as it tracks northwards from late morning into the afternoon between Dorset - Somerset - W Midlands, and points east. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

Behind the cold front, falling heights and cold air aloft atop seasonably warm SSTs and residual moist low-level airmass (characterised by dewpoints of 9-10C) will result in scattered showers developing, occasionally organised into more distinct bands. Notably steep mid-level lapse rates should increase lightning activity during the afternoon hours across the English Channel, these showers then feeding inland well into the evening. Have issued a low-end SLGT given expected environmental conditions - one limiting factor could be extensive cloud cover. The slow-moving nature of these showers, and elements of along-flow training increases the risk of flash flooding, especially considering the already saturated ground in places. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the most intense showers, perhaps even a tornado/waterspout.